Arsenyi Yatsenyuk: Rebel without a Cause

Graham Stack for Russia Profile (www.russiaprofile.org)

Ukraine’s youthful Presidential Candidate Arseny Yatsenyuk is tailor-made to be a pro-Western leader, but his stagnating ratings show how weak this political constituency has become in Ukraine. Instead, all three leading contenders in the presidential election campaign that kicked off this week are making pro-Russian statements.

History repeats itself as farce, Karl Marx apparently said. The Ukrainian presidential hopeful, 35-year-old Arseny Yatsenyuk’s great historical moment may have come and gone on June 7, 2009. During a week boiling with rumors it seemed that the two largest parties in Ukraine’s unicameral parliament, the Rada, were preparing a grand coalition to achieve a constitutional majority and transform Ukraine into a parliamentary republic, abolishing direct presidential elections. The trigger: Yatsenyuk’s meteoric rise in opinion polls, from zero to over ten percent in the course of months. Extrapolating, neither leader of the two largest parliamentary parties, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc or the former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions, could be sure of winning the presidential elections  January 2010. So they had apparently simply decided to call off the elections altogether, and divvy up power between them.

Yatsenyuk sprang into action. Talking to this correspondent, he called on the West to beware of the imminent creation of a Russian-backed “junta.” “If the coalition’s plans go ahead, Ukraine will return to the sphere of influence of a certain big country,” he warned, “and Ukraine will turn into a banana republic.” Calling the nascent coalition’s plans “an anti-constitutional conspiracy,” he said he would lead people out on the streets to fight them. Asked if there would be a second Orange Revolution, Yatsenyuk replied “you will see it.”

By Sunday, June 7, however, it was all over. The “putsch attempt” has been debunked as just another Ukrainian political stunt. Viktor Yanukovych suddenly backed out of the negotiations, saying that he was alarmed by the anti-democratic nature of Tymoshenko’s suggestions. The episode left Yanukovych looking wily, and even a little democratic, Tymoshenko looking like she would stop at nothing to stay in power, and Yatsenyuk like a callow wannabe popular hero.

Yatsenyuk, with his perfect English, baby-face looks, superb credentials and squeaky clean image, is tailor-made to fit the role of a “pro-Western democratic candidate.” But it is a sign of the times that there is no demand for such in Ukraine today, making Yatsenyuk seem like a rebel without a cause.

From Ukraine’s Obama to Ukraine’s Medvedev

Launching his unofficial campaign in late 2008, Yatsenyuk tried to tap into the buzz surrounding the new U.S. President Barack Obama. The media picked up the “Ukraine’s Obama” jingle, and Yatsenyuk’s spinmeisters playfully disclaimed it, pointing out “significant differences:” “Obama uses a Blackberry, but Arseny prefers an iPhone.”

This strategy paid off in the first half of 2009, as Yatsenyuk’s ratings rose meteorically to around 13 percent, fractionally behind prime minister Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk’s advance, however, was at the expense of democratic President Viktor Yushchenko, as he was winning over the latter’s residual pro-Orange constituency. As a result, Yushchenko’s own rating fell below the margin of error, with Gallup declaring him to be the most unpopular president in the history of polling. Conversely, as Yushchenko’s rating tended to zero, Yatsenyuk hit his ceiling of around 13 percent, which was still less than Tymoshenko at around 15%, and way behind Yanukovych’s mid 20s.

Realizing that the post-Orange constituency was too small to get in the second round of the elections, let alone win it, Yatsenyuk was forced to change his tune and follow in Tymoshenko’s footsteps. The latter, formerly an iconic figure of the Orange Revolution, had already jettisoned her Orange ballast in 2008. In the course of months in 2008, she spectacularly morphed from an anti-Russian, pro-NATO firebrand into a moderately pro-Russian politician. By September she was  under investigation by the Ukrainian Security Service for acting against Ukraine’s national interest for the benefit of Russia. Not least, she refused to support Georgia in the August 2008 war with Russia over South Ossetia.

To compete with Tymoshenko, Yatsenyuk then likewise discarded the “Ukraine’s Obama” mask. Instead, he donned what Andrew Wilson of the European Council of Foreign Relations called the image of “Putin-lite,” to capitalize on the Russian prime minister’s sky-high approval ratings in Ukraine. Instead of railing Orange-style against juntas and authoritarianism, Yatsenyuk switched to declaring war on corruption, using hard-man talk of filling the jails and cutting off hands. He also showed himself happy to speak Russian in public, supported the Russian stance over gas transport, and praised Putin as “having saved his country.” “Putin-lite” is also reminiscent of Dmitry Medvedev, who enjoys a high level of approval in Ukraine, has declared war on corruption, is young and has a background in law, like Yatsenyuk.

But Yatsenyuk is not the only one trying to tap into the buzz surrounding Putin and Medvedev. The polls’ frontrunner, Viktor Yanukovych, has the best pro-Russian credentials, although he is hardly a Putinesque figure. Yulia Tymoshenko can match Putin for charisma, and has been hard at it, with Putin/Medvedev-like phrases, such as “dictatorship of the law” and “legal nihilism” tripping off her tongue, along with Putin-style promises to restore Ukraine’s Soviet-era high-tech aerospace and ship-building sectors. Tymoshenko’s enthusiasm for Putin apparently even caused the latter to postpone a meeting with her in October, lest it seem he was favouring her in the elections.

This means that switching to “Ukraine’s Medvedev” has not brought Yatsenyuk the anticipated breakthrough in the polls. The latest ratings have seen him fall back to around ten percent, and his chances of getting into the second round of elections ahead of Tymoshenko are fading. Meanwhile, Yanukovych is for the first time looking likely to beat Tymoshenko in a second round run-off.

But the remarkable result of Yatsenyuk’s switch to “Putin-lite” is that the leading three candidates in Ukraine’s crucial presidential elections are now all actively campaigning on their lack of hostility toward Russia, and their current order in the ratings corresponds to the respective plausibility of this platform

Ukraine’s poisoned president launches doomed bid for second term

Graham Stack in Kiev

Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko, the world’s most unpopular president according to opinion polls, climbed Ukraine’s highest mountain Sunday July 19 to prove his fitness for a second term in office. At the summit of Mount Hoverla (2016m) in the Carpathians, with a view westwards to the Europe he aspires to, Yushchenko announced officially that he would run for a second term in office in elections in January 2010.

“I would like to officially announce here that I will be running for the Ukrainian presidency in January,” he said.

A small band of supporters who had followed him to the peak in beautiful summer weather struggled with tears after his announcement. Opinion polls give Yushchenko an approval rating of only 2% – less than the margin of error – meaning he is facing utter humiliation in the elections. Pollsters point out that his rating constitutes a world record for unpopularity. His motorcade regularly encounters a hostile cacophony of blaring horns as it winds through Kiev streets.

Yushchenko’s record-breaking unpopularity is astonishing considering his initial approval rating of over 60% on taking office in January 2005. Yushchenko was swept to power by mass protests against electoral fraud in late 2004, known as the Orange Revolution. In the run-up to the rigged elections, opponents poisoned Yushchenko with dioxin. The images of his severe facial scarring that resulted have become an icon of people’s struggle for democracy.

The scarring, the medical term for which is chloracne, and facial immobility are still very obvious. The subtext of yesterday’s ascent of Hoverla was not only symbolic, but also simply to prove that the president is physically fit enough for high office in times of crisis.

Poisoned chalice

Leading international toxicologists familiar with the case argue however that the poison has massively impaired the president’s performance. They dispute Yuschenko’s claim that his body has got rid of 95% of what was one of the highest dioxin doses in humans ever recorded.

“My belief is that he will suffer many ill effects of dioxin for many years, including possible brain damage,” says dioxin expert University of Texas professor Arnold Schechter. “His chloracne not only affects the face, but the whole body – as every single follicle may be involved in severe cases as the one of president Yushchenko is,” agrees Vienna’s Alexandra Geusau.

Yuschenko has traditionally said little about the effects of the still unsolved poisoning, except to claim he is in good health. Last month, however, he admitted he had undergone 26 secret operations in the first two years of his presidency. “Nobody knew about the operations, because they were carried out at the weekend, on Friday evenings, and on Monday I was already back at work,” Yushchenko told journalists, adding that each operation lasted over three hours.

Toxicologists say Yushchenko’s out-of-touch performance in office is a direct result of the poisoning.

During the Orange Revolution, the poisoning added fuel to the popular fury at stolen elections. But according to Valery Khmelko, president of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, “following the poisoning, Yushchenko became more interested in his presidential palaces, amateur history and bee-keeping than in running the country.” Crisis-hit Ukrainians see their president as out of touch with reality and incapable of exercising power.

British toxicologist Alastair Hay of Leeds University lists lethargy, enervation, numbness, liver damage and weakened immune system as medium-term consequences of dioxin poisoning

“Yuschenko’s behaviour is what you might expect from someone exposed to dioxin in the quantities he was,” says Hay. “The chloracne indicates he is genetically susceptible to dioxins, so he may have many systems of his body damaged. It must have taken an effort of will to continue in his high-octane job.”

Now, in a bitter irony of history, the clear favorite to win the upcoming elections is the man whom the Orange Revolution prevented seizing power in 2004, pro-Russian former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

A further bitter blow is the decision on the part of Barack Obama’s new US administration to send only the vice president to Ukraine, while Obama himself visited Moscow last week without any stop-over in Kiev. Yushchenko has staked everything on a pro-US foreign policy aiming at NATO membership, and Obama’s rapprochement policy with Moscow is making this look like a dead end.

Earlier this week, Yushchenko’s foreign policy spokesman said pointedly that the main topic of discussion with Biden would be to negotiate a visit to Kiev by Obama himself.

West should beware “junta” coalition, says Yatsenyuk

Graham Stack in Kiev

With a grand coalition in Ukraine’s parliament looking set to cancel upcoming direct presidential elections and change the constitution, Arsenyi Yatsenyuk, dubbed Ukraine’s Obama, and one of the favourites to win the elections, has warned the West of a Russian-backed “junta” that could turn Ukraine into “a banana republic.”

“I know the West is exhausted of the stand-off in Ukraine,” 35 year old Arsenyi Yatsenyuk, parliamentary deputy and leader of Ukraine’s “Front for Change”, told this correspondent in perfect English, ”but this is very dangerous. Because if the coalition’s plans go ahead, Ukraine will return to the sphere of influence of a certain big country,” he added, leaving no doubt he had Russia in mind. “It will also turn Ukraine into a banana republic,” he added.

Yatsenyuk called the nascent coalition’s plans to cancel presidential elections and shift power to the parliament “an anti-constitutional conspiracy,” and promised to head a campaign to stop what he referred to as a “junta”.

Asked if there would be a second Orange revolution, Yatsenyuk said, “you will see.”

The two parties which are negotiating the coalition, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovch’s Party of Regions, together command 70% of the parliament, meaning the coalition will monopolise power in the country if comes to fruition, as it is expected to within this week.

Currently, presidential elections are scheduled for January 2010. The nascent coalition and its plans to abolish presidential elections are expected to be formally announced coming Tuesday.

Analysts agree that the move would condemn Ukraine to follow Russia and Belarus along the path to authoritarianism, by sidelining opposition and restricting political participation.

Until Yatsenyuk threw his hat into the ring, the presidential elections were seen as a two horse race between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko. Incumbent president Viktor Yushchenko, although also intending to run, has poll ratings of 2%, making him a marginal candidate.

Yatsenyuk’s rating has already reached 14% and is rising monthly. PM Tymoshenko is on 15% and opposition leader Yanukovych on 25%.

Yatsenyuk’s campaign team have no doubt that his rapid rise has prompted the move to cancel elections, with both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych now uncertain of their chances in the winner-takes-all presidential race. Yatsenyuk declared his candidacy on May 22 on turning thirty five, the minimal age for a presidential candidacy.

Former PM Yanukovych and current PM Tymoshenko were on opposing sides during the globally-acclaimed 2004 Orange revolution. It was largely Tymoshenko’s firebrand rhetoric and actions that stymied Yanukovych’s attempt to rig the elections in his favour. Now they appear to be divvying up power between them to keep Yatsenyuk out. Reports indicate Yanukovych will have himself elected president by parliament, in return for Tymoshenko continuing as prime minister.

Yanukovch openly favours a pro-Russian Ukraine. Tymoshenko, formerly vehemently pro-Western, has shifted radically to a pro-Russian position since the Russian-Georgian conflict of August 2008, prompting Ukraine’s secret service to investigate her for betraying the national interest.

Yatsenyuk’s soaring popularity in Ukraine has led to him being dubbed the Ukrainian Obama. Like Obama, he is a legal scholar by profession, with a background in civil activism. Despite his youth he has held high office in Ukraine as Minister of Economy, Foreign Minister and Parliamentary speaker. He has however avoided being mired in political sleaze and backstabbing that has dogged the country.

His campaign is also modeled on Obama’s success in 2008, with its slogan of ‘change’, and reliance on grassroots activism and also financial support from the pockets of ordinary people donating via the Internet.

His campaign team, however, playfully disclaim any such parallel, saying there are significant differences between the two young politicians. “Obama uses a blackberry, while Yatsenyuk prefers an i-phone’ a source close to Yatsenyuk joked.

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