East of Europe: The BRUK states

Entries tagged as ‘economy’

Rising Ukrainian car star Bogdan brought low by crisis

March 6, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack in Kyiv for business new europe (www.businessneweurope.eu)
“2008 was our best ever year. It was very exciting – we earned over $2bn profit, opened new facilities, and produced and sold over 110,000 vehicles,” sighs Bogdan Corporation’s CEO Oleg Svinarchuk. But with the crisis causing the domestic market to collapse and Ukraine’s accession to the WTO making foreign imports a whole load cheaper, Svinarchuk admits it’s back to the drawing board

2008 followed almost a decade of double-digit expansion of the Ukrainian automobile market. Bogdan’s car production figures quadrupled in the five years from 2004 to just under 90,000. With only 150 cars per 1,000 people compared with 600-700 in Western Europe, this seemed to be only the start of the journey.

Bogdan specialises in assembling budget cars, above all Russia’s Soviet-era AvtoVaz models known in the West as Lada. Svinarchuk admits the lasting popularity of the brand, still the top seller in Ukraine, is a “forced love” linked to the unbeatable price at $3,000-4,000. But he argues that the brand enjoys real kudos linked to its past as the number-one Soviet chick magnet – and also its ease of service.

And with times changing and the availability of cheap car credits spreading in Ukraine thanks to foreign banks, Bogdan has expanded its product range, launching Hyundai, Kia, Subaro, and Isuzu models. Kia and Hyundai now rank among Ukraine’s top-10 brands.

With a market share of almost 20% in 2008, Bogdan’s ambitions were underlined by its launching of a brand new plant in the town of Cherkassy for Hyundai models, with an annual capacity of 150,000 units. Bogdan also has production lines for 21,000 trucks, 19,000 special vehicles and 9,000 buses. “In addition to the Cherkassy plant, in 2008, we expanded our bus production at our Lutsk plant, and launched assembly of Isuzu trucks,” says Svinarchuk.

“Our long-term goal is for Bogdan Corporation to be present in all spheres of automotive industry with a product range encompassing cars, buses, trolleybuses, trucks, and plans for trams, electric and metropolitan trains, including all required metal processing capacities,” he explains.

And as a further step towards this goal, In the course of 2008, Bogdan consolidated its diverse assets into a vertically integrated holding.

The logical next step was for Bogdan to find a strategic investor among global car majors – and this dream nearly came true for Bogdan in 2008, according to Svinarchuk. “We had a very serious offer from an international structure towards the end of 2008 – but the crisis meant that nothing came of it.”

Car crash

Instead of attracting strategic investment, Bogdan found itself having to pay back huge debts. “We took out a lot of loans to finance last year’s investment plans. We have over $300m in long-term loans directed towards these projects,” says Svinarchuk. “Unfortunately we also had large short-term debts we used to purchase components.” Bogdan has paid back over $400m in short-term debt, with another $250m of short-term debt to be paid back this year.

Bogdan also suffered “huge losses” as a result of the collapse in the hryvnia. The proceeds from a 3% private placement bought in January by UK private equity group NLV for $13m “went purely to fill the hole in our operating capital this left.”

But the most serious blow the crisis dealt to Bogdan has been the terrifying collapse of demand for cars. Previous years’ rocketing demand for cars was a result of snowballing credit expansion by foreign banks doling out cheap loans. Some 50% of cars sold in 2008 were purchased on credit. “30-40% per annum growth over the last few years was of course driven mainly by this credit expansion. But it was not a bubble, at least regards us. We reinvested all our profits in production,” says Svinarchuk.

But with the credit market now dead, demand for cars has collapsed. And this is before the effects of salary cuts and soaring unemployment kick in. Not to mention the market flooding with repossessed cars. Sales figures for January show demand for cars plummeted 55.5% on the year, according to IAG Autoconsulting.

As a result of the market collapse, some analysts anticipate a merger between Bogdan and Bogdan’s main competitor, Ukravto, Ukraine’s largest car producer. Svinarchuk says this is not an immediate prospect, “but never say never – we have very good personal and business relations with Ukravto”.

WTO blues

Most galling for Bogdan’s CEO is that devaluation brings the company no price advantage relative to foreign imports – because almost all Bogdan’s component parts are imported despite Ukraine having a giant steel industry. “Ukraine simply produces no steel high-grade enough for use in car production,” he laments.

And if that was not enough, Ukraine’s much touted fast-tracked World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession in 2008 saw the government dispense with all protective measures for domestic car markers, with immediate effect. Previous to WTO accession, protective tariffs added almost 50% to the price of foreign imports. The government’s failure to negotiate even a transitional period appalls Svinarchuk. “No single other country failed to negotiate a transitional period for removal of protective tariffs,” he complains.

Svinarchuk argues that the current crisis exposes the fatal flaw in Ukraine’s development – the government’s failure to develop productive capacities and technology transfer. Instead, a misplaced focus on free trade has led to a flood of imports. Svinarchuk calls for a radical change in economic policy. “There is only one scenario for development,” he outlines. “Cutting corporate taxes, cutting consumption taxes, but raising import duties and encouraging import of technologies through FDI and free economic zones, while restoring those industries where we were leaders in Soviet times: defence, ship-building, aerospace.”

“But we know why foreign companies won’t set up production here: the high level corruption and the bureaucracy – you can spend five years trying to get the land to build a factory, and in the end you still won’t get it.”

“How can it be that, paradoxically, just at the moment when people’s incomes are falling due to the crisis, prices are rising after devaluation? The answer is that everything we buy here is imported. There will be no import substitution in Ukraine, because we don’t produce any finished products here. And this is our great failure over 18 years of independence.”

Categories: Ukraine · Uncategorized
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Moody’s says Eastern Europe crisis could threaten Euro stability

February 18, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Moody’s is warning that western European banks with East European subsidiaries are at risk of ratings downgrades.

“The relative vulnerabilties in east European banking systems will be exposed by an increasingly tougher operating environment in eastern Europe as a result of a steep and long economic downturn coupled with macroeconomic vulnerabilities,” Moody’s said in a report published February 17.

Moody forecast “continuous downward pressure on east European bank ratings” because of deteriorating asset quality, falling local currencies, exposure to a regional slump in real-estate and the units’ reliance on scarce short-term funding.

Eurozone banks have CEE liabilities of $1,500bn, led by Austria’s Raiffeisen and Erste Bank, Société Générale of France, Italy’s UniCredit (which owns Bank Austria) and Belgian group KBC.

The Austrian banking system is the most vulnerable, according to the FT, with half of its loan book going to Eastern Europe. In 2007, Raiffeisen and Erste Bank earned the vast majority of their pre-tax profits in eastern European countries. Italian banks are exposed to Poland and Croatia and Scandinavian banks to the Baltics.

Pressure on East European countries is starting to put pressure on the Euro, with the euro falling to a two-month low against the dollar February 17 over concerns over West European banks’ exposure to eastern Europe.

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MTS Ukraine head says MTS could bid for Ukrtelecom

February 6, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack in Kyiv for business new europe
February 5, 2009

The announcement on February 4 by Ukraine’s Transport and Communications Ministry that a tender for fixed-line operator Ukrtelecom could take place this month was no surprise to Andrei Dubovskov, CEO of MTS Ukraine, Ukraine’s second-largest mobile operator.

“Everyone is waiting for Ukrtelecom’s privatization,” says 42-year-old Dubovskov. “The government and regulatory authorities are seriously pursuing this. We expect it will finally happen this year.”

Ukrtelekom’s fate, and the country’s privatization plans in general, have long been a political football. Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada, and the presidential administration cannot even agree over who should run the State Property Committee that’s responsible for privatization. President Viktor Yushchenko has in the past blocked the privatization of major companies, partly for fear Russian companies could buy strategic Ukrainian concerns, and partly over worries that his bitter rival Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would use privatisation revenues to boost social spending, and thus her own ratings, in the run-up to presidential elections in January 2010.

But now privatisation is a last option to fund a budget predicated on a 2% deficit and 0.4% GDP growth, when consensus forecasts have now fallen to minus 5% GDP growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also demanding privatization. An IMF mission is currently in Kyiv and said to be unhappy with Ukraine’s patchy implementation of conditions for a second tranche of a $15.5bn stabilization credit agreed in November.

Speaking on February 4 about the Ukrtelekom privatization, PM Tymoshenko said that the tender would only take place if a decent price were offered by a “global brand.” She said talks were ongoing with interested parties about the exact terms of the tender.

Dubovskov says, “We have already expressed our interest, and have submitted our preferences for the conditions of tender. Nothing has changed from our point of view. We are already involved in the process.”

MTS is certainly among the most likely candidates to participate in a tender. Dubovskov adds. “But the decision on whether we participate or not, while not situative, will nevertheless depend on the specific conditions of the tender,” he warns.

In fact, proposed tender conditions for Ukrtelecom in the past have favoured MTS, by excluding any companies from bidding that have over 25% state ownership, thus ruling out several European majors such as Telenor, TeliaSonera, Telekom Austria and France Telecom. The Russian state has no stake in MTS. Tymoshenko, speaking Wednesday, February 4, reiterated that only private telecom firms would be allowed to participate.

Yevgeny Yevtushenkov, main shareholder in AFK Sistema, the Russian conglomerate that owns 52.8% of MTS, was quoted February 2 as saying that Sistema was planning some acquisitions, after securing financing facilities with Russian and foreign banks for several billion dollars. He made the comment while attending the Davos Economic Forum, according to Moscow Times.

Ukraine’s Minister of Transport and Communications Iosif Vinskii said February 4 that he expected Ukrtelecom to go for at least UAH25bn, currently just under €2.5bn.

Talking about devaluation

Regarding MTS Ukraine and the economic crisis, Dubovskov says the massive 60% devaluation has torn strips off Ukraine’s previously booming mobile telecom sector, and MTS Ukraine is no exception. “The strain on our budget has increased, our equipment comes from abroad and we have to buy hard currency at a significantly different level from earlier. Much of our expenditure is denominated in dollars, not only capex, but also [operating expenditure] such as international roaming. But our revenue of course is in hryvnia.”

Now the highly competitive Ukraine mobile telecom market is waiting to see who will take the plunge first and raise prices and/or switch to a dollar peg. “We will definitely not be the first to do so, and we have not yet made any decision,” says Dubovskov. “But when it does happen, the whole market will follow.”

Dubovskov is optimistic about demand staying stable, despite the crisis cutting into Ukrainian pockets in the form of inflation, hard currency credits turning into millstones, salary cuts and unemployment. Even with the crisis on everyone’s lips in Kyiv, Dubovsksov does not anticipate any drop in minutes of use. “MTS has the highest minutes of use per user in Ukraine, and our subscribers will not be talking any less in 2009.” But this could be speaking too soon: State Statistics reported for November a drop in the mobile sector’s revenues by 4.7% on the month, followed by stagnation in December.

Without providing any figures, Dubovskov says that MTS Ukraine’s debt situation remains stable despite the devaluation. “Our finances are sustainable, and our debt burden is manageable. Margin calls are absolutely excluded.”

Dubovskov points out that MTS Ukraine is a fully-owned subsidiary of Russian mobile giant MTS, “and thus is fully integrated into parent company financial flows.” The Russian parent has access to Russia’s emergency funds held by state bank VEB to refinance debt. And Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently included MTS on a list of 250 system-forming Russian companies that can qualify for direct financial help.

Dubovskov says MTS Ukraine does not need any such formal status in Ukraine itself- because the company already de facto enjoys such status: “On account of the size of our tax payments, we are already de facto a system-forming company in Ukraine. We have been the leader in tax payment growth in recent years. The government take good account of us as it is.”

Business as usual ‘in three to six years time’

Despite the crisis, MTS will continue to invest in its network. MTS Ukraine’s corporate governance director Andrei Bereznyi stated January 23 that the company would invest $323m in 2009.

Dubovskov himself is cautious about committing to specific figures, saying capex would be “restrained” in 2009. However, he stressed that the company will not abandon any major projects. This includes the rollout of its CDMA-based wireless internet network, already covering 100 cities and towns, 2G services and participation in any UMTS tender. “We will continue to pursue our plans, slowly, step by step,” says Dubovskov. Dubovskov rules out any adventures such as moving into handset retail, the current trend among Russian mobile operators.

MTS Ukraine’s CEO is downbeat about when business will return to normal. “I’m not one of the optimists who say that things will revive in the second half of 2009. I think it will take from three to six years to return to previous levels.”

Dubovskov relativises the shock of the massive hryvnia devaluation, saying he has been through similar traumas in 1991, 1994 and 1998. But he sees one important difference to the current crisis. “Those were local crises, affecting one country or a group of countries. This one is a global crisis.”

Categories: Ukraine · Uncategorized
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Yushchenko tells Ukraine that January budget revenues 50% lower than planned

February 2, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack for business new europe in Kiev
In an emergency address to the nation broadcast on Ukrainian television Friday night, January 30, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said that budget revenues collected in January were 50% lower than planned. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a statement posted later accused him of spreading panic, and claimed that the budget had been 100% executed. However, Defence Minister Yury Yekhanurov said Friday that strategically vital defence installations were being switched off due to lack of funds to pay electricity bills.

In his surprise address, give at only a few hours notice January 30, Yushchenko told Ukrainians that half the planned budget revenues for January had not been collected, and called the 2009 budget as it stands ‘a castle of air’.

He appealled to Ukrainians to mobilise to save the economy from disaster by pressurizing the government to act. He also demanded that the government and the parliament immediately amend the 2009 national budget and insisted that Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko bears personal responsibility for the economic situation in the country.

“I would like to emphasize that, in line with the constitution, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko bears full responsibility for the economic situation, the disruption of the budget process, and the destruction of the banking system. If the situation becomes critical, she will not be able to hide in the opposition. She has lied enough,” Yushchenko said.

“On behalf of the entire country, I demand that the government and the parliament draw up an honest budget, in which expenditures will match the economy’s resources. This is your constitutional, state, and political responsibility,” Yushchenko said in the TV address that was only announced on Friday afternoon.

He also said that consensus prognosis for 2009 was now at -5% or worse, whearas the budget assumes GDP growth of 0.4%. Last week the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development lowered Ukraine’s 2009 prognosis to -6% growth, down from +1% in prognosed in November.

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko responded on her personal website by saying that the budget had been fulfilled for January 100%. However, she referred only to budget expenditure, not revenue, saying that wages and pensions had all been fully paid in January.

Her statement criticized the President’s address to the nation, calling it “a mixture of lies, panic and hysterial,” and said the President had revealed himself to “not the leader that Ukraine needs while under the blows of the global economic crisis.”

She said the crisis requires “a sober mind, iron nerves, strong will, decisiveness and a deep feeling of responsibility – precisely the qualities that Viktor
Andreevich [Yushchenko] lacks, has always lacked, and always will lack.”

Despite Tymoshenko’s claims that the budget was being executed according to plan, last week electricity suppliers started to switch off Defence Ministry installation for non-payment of bills, in scenes reminiscent of the 1990s.

According to korrespondent.net, Defence Minister Yury Ekhanurov told journalists on Friday, January 30, that his ministry urgently needed UAH30m (3 million euros) to pay elecriticty bills for strategically important military bases. Ekhanurov said his ministry owed a total of UAH147m (14.7m euros).

Ekhanurov, speaking prior to meeting with the president, said that last week around 72 military sites had their power cut off due to unpaid bills, including vital air defence installations that the Ukraine Security Doctrine prohibits from being cut off.

As a result, serious holes in Ukraine’s air defence surveillance now exist, according to Ekhanurov.

Despite Yushchenko’s criticism of the current budget for 2009 as being wildly overoptimistic, Ekhanurov said that the budget as it stands already underfinances Ukrainian defence by around 4bn euros.

Leaked Finance Minister letter says Ukraine  ”on edge of abyss”

Yushchenko’s dramatic and unexpected address to the nation, together with the situation in the military, seem to confirm the facts contained in an apparently leaked letter from Finance Minister Viktor Pinzenyk to Tymoshenko dated January 6. Excerpts from the letter were published by internet daily Ekonomicheskie Izvestiya January 27.

The authenticity of the letter has not been confirmed. However, Yushchenko in his address to the nation Friday night lent it credibility by calling on the government to heed Pinznyk’s arguments.

In the letter as quoted, Pinzenyk appears to say that Ukraine is on the ‘edge of the abyss’, the country worst affected by the global crisis, and that the 2009 budget as it stands is illusory.

The letter quoted in Ekonomicheskie Izvestiya said the economic results for November-December 2008 were catastrophic, the worst since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with production falling 28% on the month in November. “A third of industry has stopped working,” says the letter, as quoted in the newspaper.

The letter notes an abrupt fall in the amount of taxes being collected, meaning that regions are already having problems paying state employees. The letter predicts a total revenue shortfall of around UAH84.8bn, (8.48bn euros) for 2009, and thus recommends massive cuts to social expenditure and state sector salaries.

The letter notes an abrupt fall in the amount of taxes being collected, meaning that regions are already having problems paying state employees. The letter predicts a total revenue shortfall of around UAH84.8bn, (8.48bn euros) for 2009, and thus recommends massive cuts to social expenditure and state sector salaries.

On Monday January 26, the governing coalition majority in the Rada, supported by Tymoshenko, tried to oust head of the Ukrainian National Bank Vladimir Stelmakh, dcspite lacking the constitutional authority to do so. Opponents including President Yushchenko accuse her of wanting to attain more government control over the central bank in order to print the money needed to finance the current budget.

Tymoshenko is one of the favourite candidates to win January 2010’s presidential elections, but will lose her populist credentials if she is forced to execute any cuts to state salaries and social spending.

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Russian officials dismiss devaluation as ruble falls to two-year low

October 22, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack for business new europe (www.businessneweurope.eu)

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov today assured the Financial Times that the government is not intending to devalue the rouble but would use reserves to support the currency. As trading started on Moscow's MICEX, the ruble fell to a two year low against the dollar.

“We don't have any plans for this [devaluation]. We consider that a devaluation would be harmful… We are thinking, 'These are reserves, let us use them as reserves,' the FT quotes Shuvalov as saying.

However, the ruble fell to a two-year low against dollar in the first minute of trading today Wednesday 22 October. The dollar gained 32 kopecks against the ruble, trading at 26.91 rubles, a level not seen since the summer of 2006.

With oil prices falling to under $70 per barrel, rumors of looming devaluation of the ruble started to circulate at the end of last week.

By end of day Friday, October 17, the rate at private exchange bureaus had dropped to 5-7% below the official rate.

Answering such rumours with deeds instead of words, Monday October 20, the CBR first cut the currency swap facility on Friday evening. It placed a limit (50 billion rubles a day, while activity had reached $10 billion) on currency swap, that is, short-term credit using foreign currency as collateral.

As a result, foreign banks were extremely short of rubles, raising domestic interest rates to sky-high levels: overnight rates jumped above 20%, according to Alfa Bank.

On Monday, the CB then appreciated the ruble against the basket by some two kopeks (1%) to stabilize the market.

However this has proved to have been a short lived trend.

According to business daily Kommersant, analysts say that, in the long-term, the ruble will weaken as a consequence of oil prices and the situation on the credit market, and this may even start this week. They expect the ruble to fall about 5 percent.

In comments made to journalists yesterday, October 22, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Central Bank's $540bn reserves were sufficient to ensure exchange rate stability.

“The exchange rate will be stable with such a volume of gold and forex reserves,” he said, adding that, “speculators on the currency's exchange rate will be very disappointed,” according to Interfax.

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Belarus’ surprise opening gambit

July 17, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack for business new europe

For a country long regarded as a regional backwater, Belarus has been full of surprises since 2007.

First came the “gas war” with Russia in January 2007, where Russia hiked prices for gas and slapped export duties on oil – contradicting preconceptions about Russia using energy prices to punish enemies, such as Ukraine, and reward friends like Belarus. Then came a bigger surprise from the Belarusian side. After a decade of anti-Western rhetoric, the government announced a whole raft of measures to open up the economy to foreign investment and liberalise the economy. But doesn’t take much to link the two.

“For a whole decade, nothing was done to support the private sector, and no one expected these measures. Now we are hearing at a frequency of once a week cardinal measures decided on from the president or government. And all these measures are extremely positive for entrepreneurs and the private sector,” says Sergei Shaban, deputy chairman of the board of Belgazprombank.

Belgazprombank, the country’s seventh largest bank in terms of assets and third largest in terms of share capital, owned jointly by Gazprom and Gazprombank, handles the Belarus gas trade accounting for the Russian giant, while lending to Belarusian small and medium-sized enterprises. As such, it enjoys a unique insight into both state and private sectors. “Our opinion is that the measures taken by the government and president are conditioned by the need to adapt to new prices for energy,” Shaban says. “Before the price hike, there were enough resources – internal and also subsidized energy prices from Russia. This has ended, and companies need to become more competitive, to upgrade their facilities, and this requires extra capital,” says Viktar Strachuk, senior partner in the Minsk branch of Deloitte & Touche.

Dmitry Kruk of the Institute of Privatization and Management, a think-tank that drew up privatisation plans in the 1990s only to see them mothballed when Lukashenko came to power, explains that the price hike for gas and the imposition of export duties on oil shipped to Belarus threatened a lurch into the red for the trade balance, jeopardizing macroeconomic stability. The hike in energy prices also looked certain to hit enterprise profitability, making investment in upgrading facilities and making it more imperative to raise energy efficiency. But soaring world oil prices in 2008 have removed any immediate necessity to liberalise. Belarus still enjoys a “political” gas price of $128 per 1,000 cubic meters, and Belarus oil refining is still very profitable. “So it’s a paradox,” says Kruk. “This year, the trade balance will be much more favourable than last year, but the government efforts to attract investment are much more concerted that ever before.”

“It seems to be a strategic decision,” he concludes. “Everybody actually expected a slowing of reforms this year due to favourable external circumstances.”

Between Europe and a hard place

Opening up the Belarusian economy seems both a concession to Russian demands, as well as an attempt to limit Russian influence. “There is pressure from the Kremlin to open the economy. Russia understood that it’s more useful to use economic influence than political,” argues Shaban.

According to Shaban, the move to privatization was sealed by the sale to Gazprom of Belarus gas pipelines operator Beltransgaz as part of the gas deal reached in 2007. “Beltransgaz had important symbolic value in terms of privatisation. We reckoned if this deal goes ahead, privatization will continue. The Belarus government saw that nothing had changed, nothing terrible happened.”

But analysts also argue that this year’s wooing of foreign direct investment (FDI) is aimed at western investors to prevent Russian economic domination. “The priority is investment from western Europe, not Russian investment,” says Kryuk. “There’s a specific policy of restricting Russian investment proportionally, it is evident at investment forums. Russian investment is too political.”

Deloitte’s Strachuk agrees that the government is looking to balance sources of investment, because there’s already a lot of Russian capital, especially in the banking sphere. “Western countries are still wary, but Belarus’ neighbours such as Poland, Latvia and Ukraine are interested. Also Persian Gulf countries are quite active here in real estate, and there are some contacts with China and Korea. Basically, they want a mix,” he says.

Not only has juggling east and west given liberalization a momentum of its own. The very success to date of the “Belarusian economic miracle” – with regular 8%-plus GDP growth rates – means that fixed capital investment is urgently required to renew and expand capacities. This was illustrated on June 25, when the Lukomi power station, the country’s largest, suddenly packed up, causing outages across the country for both industrial and residential consumers.

Moreover, while the economy has benefited hugely from the export of goods to the booming Russian market, competitiveness in terms of market share has been falling, as Soviet-era technologies become obsolete. And with the government still the owner of most large companies, it could cash out to harvest a bonanza to finance infrastructural measures, such as constructing a nuclear power plant to reduce its energy dependence on Russia.

Belarus simply has everything to gain from opening up, as Shaban argues: it is slap in the heart of Europe, with an educated workforce, social stability, and good production capacities. And, despite the conflict in 2007, “Belarus still has a huge price advantage in energy relative to other European countries, and the government can exploit this to attract extra capital,” according to Shaban.

Targets for investment

“Every ministry and every authority now has a major priority to attract foreign investments, having all been assigned certain targets in terms of millions of dollars of FDI to be attracted. Now a major part of their day is spent meeting with foreign investors to achieve these targets,” says Strachuk.

As evidence of the government’s reform efforts, it has publicly committed itself to leapfrogging up the World Bank’s ease-of-doing-business ranking from its current 110th position to a top-25 place by 2011. The most telling proof is that the privatisation of major companies is back on the agenda. That includes the imminent privatization of the two remaining state-owned mobile operators to Russia’s MTS and Turkey’s Turkcell; of fourth-largest Belinvest bank to Germany’s Commerzbank; and of giant truck builder MAZ to Oleg Deripaska’s Russian Machines. Michelin is also known to be interested in tyre producer Belshina. “There is an ambiguous logic about privatization,” says Kruk. “Enterprises that are currently profitable but facing an uncertain future will be sold, as companies in a tight situation will also be sold.” According to Kruk, companies with stable profits such as Minsk Tractor Factory, potash giant Belaruskali, and the largest oil refineries will remain in state ownership.

Crucial to stimulating investor interest in privatisation was the abolition in February of the notorious golden share rule, which gave the government the right to intervene in the running of a privatised company in the event of layoffs or losses.

Parallel to case-by-case privatization, as part of an institutional shift towards an investment-friendly economy, government unitary enterprises are to be transformed en masse into joint stock companies (JSC): 30% this year, and the remaining 70%, around 500 companies, through 2010. Government plans then envisage IPOs for the new JSCs, but current market conditions, and also the need to establish credit histories and introduce international accounting standards, make such ambitious claims seem unrealistic for the immediate future, according to most analysts

Besides attracting strategic investors, the privatization of majority and minority stakes is intended to stimulate the development of a stock market. To support this, earlier this year the tax on securities trading was slashed from a prohibitive 40% to a profit tax level of 24%. A moratorium imposed in the 1990s on trading shares in privatized companies was also lifted, and the government passed an umbrella programme on “corporate securities market expansion program for 2008-2010″ in January, envisaging 25% free float of total shares by 2010. However, considering the current embryonic state of the Belarus stock market, in conjunction with the disarray on the global capital markets, most analysts agree it will be a long time before things really start to take off here.

More significant in the short term are moves to streamline the tortuous tax system. With 42 different taxes, compliance is currently a nightmare, and the overall take high in comparison to neighbouring countries. But in 2009, the government will introduce a flat rate income tax of 12%, and reduce turnover tax, a major burden, by 2% to 1%, and possible phase it out entirely in 2010.

And it’s not just taxes. “Worse than taxes themselves are the many mandatory payments that are not taxes, but contributions to sector support funds not covered by tax law, but only by the budget law,” Deloitte’s Strachuk says.

Too much bureaucracy, not enough democracy

Nevertheless, a poll taken of foreign investors at the recent Minsk Investment Forum showed that taxes were not the main obstacle to investment. “More serious was a general lack of transparency, difficulties with regulations regarding pricing, and regulations regarding accounting in general, which is very formalistic,” Strachuk says. “The basic problem is bureaucracy and slow decision-making.”

Belgazprombank’s Shaban agrees: “In Belarus, corruption, for example, is significantly lower than in Ukraine and Russia. The problem lies in the speed of taking decisions.”

The government has a number of programmes that provide tax incentives for investors, such as a development programme for small and midsize towns, for “agricultural cities,” and for technology parks. However, some of these programmes also include administrative measures compelling companies to contribute. There is still a mix of policies being applied.

An excess of bureaucracy is twinned with a dearth of democracy. It’s still too early to say whether the Belarusian economic liberalization could prompt political liberalization. To secure the foreign investment from Western Europe needed to balance Russian money, President Alexander Lukashenko has to do something about his image – and he promptly took first steps in this direction in 2007, hiring Tim Bell, legendary British spin doctor for late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky and the McCanns, among others. The upcoming parliamentary elections in September will be a litmus test of how far the administration is prepared to put substance behind spin.

Minsk cabbies

Moving from the “Batka” of Belarus, as Lukashenko is referred to, to the Minsk cabby for a view from the grassroots, Svetlana, one of Mink’s few female taxi drivers, told bne that government regulations forced her to change jobs. “Previously, I had a stall trading textiles,” she says, but new government regulations now forbid the self-employed from hiring additional workers, demanding they re-register as firms, with all the accompanying costs and hassle. “There were demonstrations against the regulations on the part of small-scale entrepreneurs in the centre of Minsk, but nothing appeared about them on TV, it was all hushed up and then they were dispersed by force.”

Another Minsk cabby, Grigory, a Hare Krishna acolyte, says he earns enough as a taxi driver, without a family to support, to have visited India for six weeks this spring. Freedom to travel is one thing. “But Hare Krishna are not allowed to celebrate on the streets in Minsk – in Moscow, yes, but not in Minsk,” he complains.

However, as a taxi driver in Moscow, he could hardly afford a six-week trip to India. This is one of the paradoxes of Belarus. In Moscow, “official” cabs are rare; instead there are myriad of gypsy cabs driven by migrant workers. In Minsk, the iron grip of Lukashenko means there is an organized, competitive and efficient taxi market. Late night revellers debate which taxi service is cheaper, much as they might discuss which mobile operator gives the best deal.

Under Lukashenko, Belarus identity is openly Soviet-rooted. Independence Day is no longer July 27, the declaration of sovereignty from the Soviet Union in 1991, but July 3, the liberation of Minsk by Soviet troops in 1944.

But this is not the same as subservience to modern Russia. In some ways it’s the opposite. Belarus is proud of the “Soviet virtues” abandoned by Russia for “corruption and low morals.” Ordinary people often echo Lukashenko’s boasts that he has prevented the appearance of oligarchs, bandits, graft and ethnic strife – the plagues of modern Russia. As a visitor to Minsk watches diners in Macdonald’s actually clear their tables after eating, something unheard of in Moscow, there’s a possibility that this proud Soviet vestige might yet take on a European tinge.

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Could PM Putin’s teflon scratch?

May 6, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack for Russia Profile

Vladimir Putin seems to have a “Teflon coating”  preventing dissatisfaction with government policy sticking to his personal popularity. His willingness to blame reversals on the government and the prime minister has played a crucial part: his televised castigation of ministers and PMs for laziness, inefficiency and stupidity, has been a staple of the Putin show for the last eight years. Despite the fact that the president appoints both the prime minister and individual ministers, the buck has always stopped one door down from the Kremlin.

Paradoxically, it has always been in the government’s interest to accept the blame, and to indulge in queasy scenes of self- inculpation, because Putin’s personal popularity rating has been the generator of this government’s political power.

Yet there was no visible tension as Putin spoke to the government for the last time in his capacity as president on May 5, thanking its present and past members for the contribution they have made to the “rebirth of the economy, the social sphere and the defense.” This was not surprising, since Putin himself will very soon be sitting with the government as prime minister, and hoping that his “Teflon touch” does not desert him in the traditional scapegoat’s seat.

Still less to eat

But the economic news that broke on the same day will not reassure Putin. It was all about inflation – both out of the government’s control, like food prices, and under it, like energy price liberalization. This scissor-like movement of food prices, rising in the global context with the Russian government unable to intervene, while electricity and gas supplies to domestic customers grow on direct government orders, that could cut right through Putin’s Teflon.

On May 5, the Federal State Statistics Service released figures for the months of January to April that calculated inflation in the consumer basket of staple foods at nearly 15 percent. Moreover, price inflation for a number of crucial products accelerated through April: sunflower oil prices rose by 8.6 percent in April, after growing 4.6 percent in March. The price of bread and baked products increased by 6.4 percent, that of pasta – by 6.1 percent. The price of fruit and vegetables grew by 5.5 percent in April, and all this despite the government having strong-armed retailers into freezing the price of staples during the election season.

These ineffective price controls are about to be lifted, and will cause an additional spike in food prices for May – an inauspicious beginning for the Medvedev-Putin tandem. In an emerging market such as Russia, food prices are potential political dynamite. While inflation is always taxing for the poor, the current global growth of food prices is particularly cruel. On average, food constitutes the largest part of household expenses. However, food can be the sole expenditure of the urban poor, such as pensioners and families with small children, making those who have no access to other sources of income or to garden patches extremely vulnerable. While pensions are inflation-indexed, inflation in food prices far exceeds the overall inflation, the latter having reached 6.3 percent in the first four months of 2008, Rosstat reports.

The Achilles’ heel

Putin was clever enough to excuse himself from the remainder of government proceedings dealing with implementing gas and electricity price liberalization for household consumers that took place on May 5.

Russia’s electricity monopoly RAO UES is due to be dismantled next month, and power generation is set to transmigrate to a liberal’s paradise of competitive markets and unregulated wholesale prices. Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach spelled out the implications of this move for domestic consumers: electricity prices for households would increase by 14 percent in 2008, by 25 percent in 2009, by another 25 in 2010 and by 25 percent in 2011. Along with electricity, gas prices are set to rise steeply, with Gazprom set to earn netback parity (equal profit levels) with European prices by 2011. According to Klepach, this means that household gas prices could rise by 25 percent in 2009, by 30 percent in 2010 and by a whopping 40 percent in 2011.

Despite these increases, household electricity and gas will remain cheap by European standards. Russians will basically start paying for things they previously were hardly conscious of having to pay for. Very low demand elasticity will mean that if the price increases are not adequately compensated for by transfer payments, the poor will be hit the hardest once more.

And, come a cold winter, it will all be Anatoly Chubais’ fault, again. The electricity reform is the brainchild of a veteran liberal reformer Anatoly Chubais, who was considered “Russia’s most hated man” due to his Machiavellian masterminding of privatization in the 1990s. Saying that “Chubais is to blame for everything” has become customary in Russia, and he is every nationalist’s and communist’s favorite target.

In 2005, Chubais narrowly escaped assassination by former military nationalist intelligence officers, who used a rocket and a machine gun to attack his car near Moscow. On pretrial detention, ringleader Vladimir Kvatchkov failed to get elected to the Duma, which would have bestowed immunity upon him. Wags quipped that if he had succeeded in assassinating Chubais, he would have gotten elected. Kvatchkov’s trial has been dogged by jury selection controversies, since the state prosecutor claimed that any pensioner whatsoever is ipso facto prejudiced in favor of Kvatchkov and against Chubais.

This goes to show the political iceberg that lurks in the waters of Putin’s premiership. For the past eight years, Putin has successfully avoided being associated with Chubais and “liberal reforms,” not least through hiding behind his government. A freezing of the energy reforms, however, could cause the foreign investors, who have pledged $30 billion to upgrade Russia’s power generation, to revoke their commitment. It could also threaten Gazprom’s gas supply arrangements with Europe and stall Russia’s industrial development, and thus is out of the question.

With economic growth and investment surging, the price scissors created by food price inflation and energy price liberalization are unlikely to derail the Medvedev-Putin presidency. But a rerun of the wave of social and political unrest could see Putin’s “Teflon” scratched, and the man who used to symbolize national consensus as president will become a more divisive figure as a prime minister.

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Rosoboronexport / Russian Technologies – Russia’s unofficial ‘Ministry of Deprivatisation’

March 3, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Graham Stack, for  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Defence sector restructuring into sector-based holding companies was on the cards right from the start of Vladimir Putin’s presidency. What is striking is that the plan to establish holding companies largely failed to get off the ground during Putin’s first term. Apart from the establishment of the Almaz-Antei tactical missile and Sukhoi aviation holdings, the 2002 project to set up 74 state-controlled concerns and holdings remained entirely on paper due to bureaucratic infighting, conflicting visions, and above all widespread resistance from enterprises. Then even the Almaz-Antei merger plan hit an iceberg when new Kremlin-appointed manager Igor Klimov died in a hail of bullets in Moscow.

Put simply, the reasons for consolidating individual plants into sectoral holdings were also the reasons why there was so much resistance against this happening: the managements of the defence plants, both state-owned and private, feared losing control of ‘their’ companies and the connected financial flows. However, without consolidation, and separation of ownership from management, these enterprises would remain unable to attract the financial resources they desperately needed to develop.

Wholesale renationalisation was still firmly off the agenda during Putin’s first term. Restructuring plans were mostly connected with further privatization – but there was no political will for this.

The stalemate ended abruptly in 2004. Putin’s radical reshaping of government on dismissing the Kasyanov government one week before reelection saw a Federal Agency for Industry emerge with a remit for the entire defence sector, headed by Boris Alyoshin, an ardent proponent of the holding policy with an aviation industry background. The newly-created Federal State Property Agency was run by a contingent of Petersburgers committed to transforming federal state unitary enterprises into joint stock companies.

Moreover, in the course of 2004, federal power was considerably strengthened at the expense of business interests by the Yukos case, and at the expense of regional interests by the post-Beslan transition to appointed governors. In addition, the surge in oil prices, and the start of Putin’s second and final term in office shifted economic policy away from long-term institution building to state-accelerated economic diversification aiming at short-medium term results.

Rosoboronexport: More than just an arms exporter

Most importantly, in mid-2004 Sergei Chemezov took over as head of state arms export intermediary Rosoboronexport (ROE). He had long recognized that the company’s control over arms exports gave it enormous leverage over the defence sector, that could be used to achieve restructuring ‘by the back door’.

Two competing arms export organisations had been merged into ROE right in 2000, immediately following Putin becoming president. By 2004, ROE had a monopoly of export sales, except for four companies with their own export licences – including the aerospace legend MIG. In 2005, ROE sold $5.2 billion worth of arms, about 85% of all arms sales. However, Chemezov set about lobbying for a complete monopoly on arms exports for ROE, which was granted in 2006.

Since the Soviet collapse, arms exports had been the lifeline of the Russian defence industry, the only internationally competitive sector outside minerals and mining. Russian state arms procurement died during the nineties, and only slowly revived under Putin.

Because ROE assigned export orders to defence sector plants, it enjoyed potential leverage over the sector. Adding to this leverage was the Soviet system of internal competition in the defence industry, whereby a number of plants had duplicated production to stimulate competition. This means that ROE often has a real choice between plants when assigning export orders.

In addition, surging defence procurement later in Putin’s second term now provides the state with further means of persuasion for recalcitrant companies. Chemezov has clearly been able to influence defence ministry order assignment to facilitate renationalisation of companies.

Apart from these political levers, ROE takes 5-15% commission on arms sales, which rose from 5.5bn in 2005 to $7bn in 2007, meaning the company has considerable cash flow.

On the other hand, the company is formally merely a federal unitary state-owned company, and as such subject to a large amount of bureaucratic supervision and regulation: answering directly to the Federal Agency for State Property, the Federal Agency for Industry, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Ministry of Energy and Industry, the Ministry of Defence, and the Military-Industrial Commission.

The Chemezov Code: Back to the future

This is where the person of 56 year old Sergei Chemezov plays such a crucial role. Chemezov is an official Friend of Putin, and has a direct line to the Kremlin. It is this personal relationship, in the final analysis, that allowed ROE to act as an unofficial ‘Ministry of Deprivatisation’ independent of the government.

Putin and Chemezov’s acquaintanceship goes back to the time as KGB agents they lived in the same apartment block in Dresden in the 1980s. When Putin moved to work in the Kremlin administration in 1996, Chemezov moved to work under him, and has worked for him ever since.

Chemezov was involved in industrial espionage against the West, and his interest in industry, and catching up with the West in terms of technology, permeates his activities today: Chemezov is an ardent proponent of developing high tech production to diversify the economy away from its reliance on commodity exports.

“Our mineral deposits,” said Chemezov, in an interview with news magazine Itogi, “are finite. There are few remaining undiscovered gas and oil deposits in Russia. And they are non-renewable. But high tech, including for military use, can be refined without end, and its price is stable and predictable, whereas oil has fluctuated from $8 to $60 a barrel in the last ten years.”

“A state of the art fighter jet costing around 50 million dollars: This is the price of two and half tonnes of gold. Russia produces 166-180 tonnes of gold per year, enough for 65 fighters. Our Irkutsk plant alone will turn out 32 Su-30s in 2007– i.e. worth half of the gold mined in the country in the course of the year!”

“Everyone knows that we have to get away from our country’s dependency on commodity exports. We have to diversify our industrial production. Reforming Russian industry is simply a question of national security.”

Chemezov thus shares with many liberals the view that Russia has to diversify its economy, increase added value, and become globally competitive. However, the means he proposes to use are very different, and potentially mutually exclusive. Instead of long-term institutional reforms, he favours a state-led restructuring and repositioning of the technologically advanced defence sector as being the key – a restructuring based on renationalisation of much of the sector.

Chemezov sees the defence sector as crucial in this respect because of its potential for economic diversification and high tech. Chemezov’s goal is globally competitive Russian high-tech production – both military and commercial, He is not a militarist intent on turning Russia into a military superpower again.

Chemezov does not seem to regard the West as an enemy, but he views Western companies as competitors on global markets, enjoying strong backing from their respective states, which Russian companies should thus also enjoy.

Indeed, Chemezov sees Western markets as a huge untapped potential market for Russian commercial high tech, and the West as a crucial source of both investment and technology. ‘Diversification’ thus also involves diversification from military use into commercial use technology to access western markets closed to Russian arms.

Cutting the Gordian Knot

Chemezov’s political trademark has been to cut the Gordian knot in defence sector restructuring by renationalizing.

Whereas in Putin’s first term, talk of restructuring the defence sector envisaged ongoing privatization, Chemezov has done the opposite: buying back assets privatized in the 1990s from private owners or the stock market. This is partly due to desire to reassert state control over the sector, but also because it is simply the path of least resistance for restructuring the sector.

Inefficient and unstable insider ownership by management, often via complex cross-ownership of companies by their subsidiaries, was clearly throttling the development of the sector.

In many cases, management control of enterprises depended on the state as a minority shareholder playing a passive role.

However, when political will appeared, it was easy for the state to unseat management, simply by increasing the retained minority stake to a controlling one by ‘market methods’: by acquiring free-float shares; buying out private investors and management-owners or implementing asset swaps for ROE assets, especially with regional government stakes.

This is what ROE and its subsidiaries have set about doing, with the cooperation of further state instances, such as the Federal Agency of State Property.

Many of the plants ROE has taken control over had low market capitalization, so relatively small cash payments have been needed, especially where the state retained a share packet. For instance, to reassert state control over the famous Moscow Milya Helicopter Plant, all it took was to acquire the 20% stake held by Interregional Investment Bank for a mere $20m. The Tatarstan regional government was persuaded to simply swap its 30% stake in Kazan Helicopter Plant for 15% in ROE subsidiary Oboronprom.
ROE has acted with a minimum of publicity to avoid driving up prices of assets it wants. Secrecy has been a hallmark of its activities, in keeping with the KGB background of many of its managers, with the ‘unofficial’ nature of ROE’s restructuring activities. This means that the details of many details have remained unknown.
Vertical take-off for renationalisation

Only three weeks after Putin’s reelection in March 2004, Boris Alyoshin, as new head of the new Federal Agency for Industry, submitted a project for ROE subsidiary Oboronprom to unite all companies developing and building Mil-class helicopters in a special holding. This remit then broadened into creating a holding for all Russia’s producers of helicopters.

Oboronprom is the vehicle used by ROE to piece together its helicopter, and aviation engine, holdings, originally 51% state owned, 49% state owned. Its youthful former manager, 38 year old Denis Manturov, promoted in 2007 to deputy minister for industry and energy, enjoys Chemezov’s full trust, and is rumoured to be a former intelligence service colleague, who however had been working in the helicopter sector for almost ten years.

At the start of the process, the state had retained at the most blocking stakes in Russia’s main helicopter producers. The main producer of attack helicopters, Rostock helicopter plant (Rosvertol), was completely private, controlled by its management, and the legendary Kamov holding was owned by financial-industrial group AFK Sistema.

This is where ROE came into play, with the task of creating a holding ‘outsourced’ to the arms trader. In the predominantly state-owned plane-building and ship-building sectors, consolidation into holdings was official government policy. Helicopter sector consolidation, on the other hand, was ‘unofficial’ policy since it comprised large-scale renationalisation.

It was also a test case for renationalisation “by market methods”.

2004-2007 Oboronprom worked hard at gathering the helicopter industry under one roof. It acquired 31% of the Milya Moscow Helicopter Plant, 29.9% of the Kazan Helicopter Plant, 63% of Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant, 60% of the Stupino Machine Production Plant and 50.5% of Vpered Moscow Machine-Building Plant, and bought first a blocking, then a controlling consolidate a controlling stake in Rostvertol. It purchased from AFK Sistema 100% of the shares of Kamov-Holding, including the Kamov Design Bureau and the Kumertau Aircraft Building Plant and Arsenev Plant.

Integrating the major Kamaz Helicopter Plant (KVZ) proved to be the greatest political challenge, due to resistance from management owners backed by Tatarstan’s government. Only after President Shaimiev’s reappointment by Putin, wielding his new powers, in 2005, did Tatarstan cede its 29.92% stake to Oboronprom in return for a 15.7% stake in Oboronprom. It was not until 2007 that Oboronprom finally bought out the management stake, resulting in the abrupt departure of KVZ’s director of 17 years standing, its chief owner, and opponent of Oboronprom, Aleksandr Lavrant’ev.

The icing on the cake was an August 2007 presidential decree transferring the state’s stake in Bashkiria’s Kumertau plant and in the ‘Progress’ plant that produces the ‘Black Shark’ attack helicopters to Obronprom.

The operation was accomplished without any public scandals breaking out or overt pressure applied, and to the general satisfaction of stock market analysts. Oboronprom could thus call itself a model of how to create a state-run holding from out of privately-owned defence enterprises.

Oboronprom’s helicopter assets are now being integrated into a single company called “Russian Helicopters.” A new phase of integration was launched at the start of February, 2008: the management of Russian Helicopters took over running the Moscow Milya Plant, with the same to happen for all other companies in the holding in the course of the year. The goal, by 2010, is a single share, international accounting standards, and an IPO, leaving the state with just over 50%, and bringing in foreign investors.

On the same day in August 2007 that Putin signed a decree transferring the remaining state assets in the sector to Oboronprom, he inked a decree calling for four state-controlled holdings for producers of aviation engines.

This decree specifically tasked Oboronprom with setting up the largest of the holdings. The three other holdings comprises state-owned companies, but Oboronprom’s holding was to integrate the Saturn plant in Rybinsk, Ufa’s UMPO and Perm Motors – all of which are privately-owned companies.

Analysts regard Saturn as an exemplary thriving management-owned company, with large investments in R&D and retooling making it the technologically most advanced company in the sector. Saturn, in partnership with Snecma, a member of France’s Saffran aerospace group, developed the SaM-146 engine to be used for the much-hyped Sukhoi Superjet 100.

However, despite these services, first deputy chairman of the Military Industrial Commission Vladislav Putilin stated unambiguously, commenting the presidential decree: “Oboronprom must take control of companies where there is currently no state control.”

Titanium tempation

ROE has also taken control of plants in the metallurgy and mining sector it believes to be of strategic importance for the defence sector.

In late 2006, ROE subsidiary OboronImpex acquired 66% of Russian titanium producer VSMPO Avisma, which as supplier of 65% of Airbus titanium needs and 30% of Boeing’s has strategic significance for the global aviation industry.

VSMPO- Avisma, the result of a merger in 2005, had a rocky history in terms of ownership, with an ongoing dispute between Renova and Renaissance Capital over a 13.4% share packet. Soviet era management held a controlling stake, with 73 -year old general director Vladislav Tetyukhin and chairman Vyacheslav Bresht each with 30%.

In an interview with Vedomosti in February 2008, OboronImpeks director, the 40 year old Mikhail Shelkov said “ROE entered VSMPO Avisma and (car producer) AvtoVAZ for the same reason. Both companies are strategically important for the economy, and both had problematic ownership structures. At VSMPO there was a conflict between Tetyukhin, Bresht and Vekselburg, and the company was suffering.”
Chemezov has also argued that VSMPO-Avisma’s dependency on Boeing and Airbus meant there was a great risk of the company being acquired by foreign aviation concerns, to the disadvantage of Russian plane producers.
The real reason may have been to increase Russia’s leverage over Boeing and over Airbus producers EADS in order to deepen collaboration and technology sharing. Ultralight titanium components are crucial to the new generation of airliners, such as Boeing’s Dreamliner and EADS’s next generation Airbus – and global titanium supply is stretched. Both companies depend on Russia for supplies – and Russia depends on them for technologies and partnership.

The ROE takeover has thus strengthened the titanium producer’s partnership with Boeing. In August 2007, VSMPO Avisma formalised a joint venture with Boeing, Ural Boeing Manufacture (UBM), to manufacture components for the Dreamliner. Pressed titanium components made by a new UBM plant in the Urals, with startup slated for late 2008, will then be finished at a Boeing factory in Portland, Oregon. UBM will also supply titanium components to Airbus.

Oboronimpeks management claims the new owners have brought order to the plant implementing SAP for most business processes. A $1bn investment programme is intended to diversify production by 2012 and increase its added-value, ending production of titanium sponge in favour of higher-grade titanium ingots and also milled products. Market capitalization has grown following the company’s renationalisation.

In autumn 2007, the ROE acquisition conveyor belt started moving again – into mining. Citing a shortage of carnalite used in titanium production, ROE’s subsidiary OboronImpex acquired Kama Mining Company on parity basis with Silvinit. The JV plans to acquire a licence to develop the Polovodosk potassium and magnesium salt deposit, and to built a $1.5bn plant to supply VSMPO-Avisma on an exclusive basis with 500,000 tonnes of carnalite annually. It was also reported at the end of 2007 that ROE had engaged British-owned mining concern Aricom, a subsidiary of Peter Hambro Mining as advisers to help them develop mining assets.

The move into mining is indicative of the way ROE’s core business of weapons exports seems to effortlessly pan out like spilt beer across a table – from defence export, to producers, to metallurgy, to mining. There was thus little surprise when in early 2008, it was reported that ROE was laying claim to a 49% Russian state stake in Mongolian company Erdenet, Asia’s fifth largest copper producer.

ROE has not just staked a claim on exotic ultra-light materials like titanium. ROE started targeting ‘special steels’, i.e. high grade steels suitable for use in armour and other defence applications, in 2007. The vehicle for this is a specially created holding RusSpetStal holding, 100% owned by ROE. Its first acquisition was 100% of the Krasnyi Oktyabr metallurgical plant in Volgograd early in the year, and a couple of more minor purchases followed

Even Chemezov sometimes loses track of all he is after. Speaking at the Paris Airshow at Le Bourget in June 2007, Chemezov said RussSpetsStal had approached the Kulebaki metallurgical plant, the Volgograd machine-building plant, and Stupino Elektrostal plant. But this, Chemezov said, was by no means an exhaustive list. “In fact, I cannot even remember them all,” he admitted.

Saving private AvtoVAZ

Most controversially, ROE took control over giant car producer AvtoVAZ, based in Tolyatti in Samara region, in 2005, and analysts rubbed their eyes in disbelief at seeing the state arms exporter intervene in domestic car production.

A new ROE management team quickly took over running AvtoVAZ, replacing 65 year old Vladimir Kadannikov who resigned, apparently after a meeting with feared Kremlin deputy chief of staff Igor Sechin. The new management came backed by battalions of police dispatched from Moscow to eradicate of organised crime from the plant.

The car giant AvtoVAZ, valued at $2.270bn, with a workforce of 165,000 producing about half of Russia’s needs in passenger vehicles, was adrift in dire straits, with rapidly receding market share, as imports flooded into Russia.

The AvtoVAZ plant, ever since late Soviet days, has been a feeding trough for organized crime, with a death toll nearing 100. The new AvtoVAZ’s first task, apparently successful, was to put an end this. Chemezov claimed that in one year the new management was able to cut costs by almost a third and increase profit by 40% year on year simply by ending crime and theft.

Furthermore, a cross-ownership share structure crippled management incentives: Kadannikov controlled the plant without owning it. This structure also made it easy, given political backing direct from the Kremlin, for a new management team to come in and take over, with the aim of “unlocking” cross-ownership and attracting external investors.

Two years later, cross-ownership is on its way out, and will be wound up by June 2008, facilitated by the technical expertise of investment bank Troika Dialog, ROE’s partners of choice. Share price has spiralled, but not profits or sales.

In the course of 2007, a number of personnel changes cemented ROE’s role in AvtoVAZ’s future. Most notably, Putin appointed the new AvtoVAZ CEO Vladimir Artyakov, a close associate of Chemezov, governor of the wealthy Samara region. Boris Alyoshin, head of the Federal Agency for Industry, then took over as general director of AvtoVAZ.

2008 will see AvtoVAZ’s reanimation move onto a new level. In December 2007, AvtoVAZ and Renault signed a memorandum of understanding declaring the intention to “to renew the lineup, exchange technologies and promote the Lada brand.” Renault is likely to pay over $1.3 billion for a blocking stake in AvtoVAZ.

In February 2008, it was declared that Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault would join AvtoVAZ as chief operating officer, with members of his Renault team becoming CFO, managerial accounting director, product planning director and chief engineer: the same team that turned around Nissan’s operations effectively.

Raiders of the lost rotorcraft

Vladimir Putin signed off November 26th 2007, on a bill setting up a state corporation Russian Technologies, to be headed by Chemezov, Two days later Putin signed a bill transferring ROE and all its assets to the new corporation, and ordering the government to draw up a list of further state assets to be transferred.

One week later, hitherto unknown businessman Oleg Shvartsman gave an interview Kommersant business daily that detailed his role in a dirty tricks campaign that was an integral part of renationalisation “by market methods’.

Shvartsman described the renationalisation crusade as a state-sponsored ‘velvet revolution’ aiming in particular at defence-related enterprises. In language reminiscent of Chemezov’s, he called this “a state task to develop the innovation sector, to transform Russia from a raw materials producer into a progressive innovation power”. He also claimed to have been acting under direct orders from the Kremlin hawks known as ‘siloviki’, to which Chemezov belongs.

Much of the credibility of what Shvartsman said comes its strong fit with observable trends:

“Generally we use voluntary-compulsory instruments to lower market capitalisation, by blocking growth, and using all sorts of administrative methods,” Shvartsman explained in the interview. “But, as a rule, people understand where we are coming from. In fact, usually we are talking about conflicts that are already smouldering somewhere, already the centre of attention for existing companies. They only need to come to an arrangement with our older colleagues and reach some sort of agreement. As a rule, it is the lower rung of the market value. But we’re not talking about another YUKOS case – the people do get reasonable money.”

The impact of the Shvartsman interview was due to its plausibility, as many commentators observed. The ROE deprivatisation campaign features use of ‘administrative resource’ , i.e. law enforcement and tax organs, and courts, to exert pressure on recalcitrant owners – and these are only the rare cases that come to light.

In August 2007, long before the Shvartsman scandal broke, Konstantin Makienko of Moscow’s Centre of Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) wrote baldly that “basically the story of the nationalisation of VSMPO Avisma and plane producer Irkut and of the helicopter producers shows that if the state takes a fundamental decision to restore control over specific assets, this will happen, sooner or later. Private owners display two reactions to nationalisation. The first is the “Tetyukhin reaction”, the second the “Bresht” reaction (the two former majority shareholders of VSMPO Avisma). The first reaction offers to cooperate with the nationalisation plans, as a result of which the owner retains a management position, a small share packet and financial compensation. (…) The second reaction leads to the private owner or his close relatives finding himself in trouble with the law enforcement organs, and ultimately his share packet reverting to the state and him being forced out of the business without adequate compensation.”

An obvious instance of such pressure while buyout negotiations were under way in 2006, was, for example, that tax inspectors suddenly filed back tax claims against the company. A judge handling the case expressed perplexity at how Avisma might be credited with R10.6m of tax overpayment on March 13, 2006, and then, out of the blue, significant tax arrears all of two weeks later.

However, analysts agree that in the case of helicopters producers, ROE did not employ much coercive pressure, since it already had strong levers of influence through control of export orders and state procurement. According to analysts, not only foreign export orders, but also state procurement orders stopped going to companies with less than 50% state ownership.

Yury Lastochkin, owner-manager of the Saturn aviation engine producer, is publicly resisting renationalization, as demanded by the August 2007 presidential decree on setting up state-owned holdings for engine plants.

As a counter move, Lastochkin is pursuing a voluntary merger with Ufa’s UMPO, while stalling on talks with Oboronprom. He argues that this fulfils the spirit, if not the letter, of Putin’s decree. When, however, Kommersant asked Denis Manturov if he agreed with this interpretation, Manturov called Lastochkin’s position ‘destructive’ and said threateningly, ‘I advise Mr Lastochkin to read what is set down black on white in the presidential decree about who is to do what and when.” He stated Oboronprom would ultimately require 100% control over Saturn, although the state’s current stake is 37%, with management holding 57%.

The conflict escalated in late December 2007 with Saturn’s purchase of 20% of UMPO, and start of buyout talks. Lastochkin told Vedomosti that state ownership was irrelevant. “The state already has all the levers of influence it needs. The main thing is the efficiency of the consolidated companies being created.”

In the same interview, Lastochkin discussed the fact that the Yaroslav regional section of pro-Putin party Edinaya Rossiya ‘only’ took 53% of the vote in the December 2 Duma elections, 11% less than the national average. This caused Yaroslav governor Anatoly Lisitsyn, a Lastochkin ally, to resign days later. Lastochkin is himself a member of the regional party council, demonstrating how entwined the “Putin party”, the economy and the state are becoming.

Saturn is Russia’s largest and most technologically advanced aviation engine maker, with a workforce of 40,000. Lastochkin said stingingly that “to hand over assets we have been developing and structuring for over 10 years to complete nobodies is beyond a laughing matter.”

Asked by the interviewer if he did not fear law enforcement or other state agencies would attack the company’s market capitalisation a la schvartsman, Lastochkin hoped the state would be clever enough to avoid such “experiments” that could disrupt the finely-tuned process of designing and producing advanced technology.

An second major headache for Oboronprom in setting up the engine-producer holding is the case of Motor Sich, the Ukrainian plant that supplies 80% of Russia’s helicopter engines, and 80% of Motor Sich production is exported to Russia. Oboronprom has held acquisition talks with Motor Sich, but they were broken off without results in August 2007.

Referring to Ukraine’s Nato membership bid, on February 5, 2008, Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko called for future substitution of Motor Sich imports by Russian-produced equivalents. 80% of Motor Sich components come from Russia.

Many analysts agree that the immediate motive here was to attack Motor Sich’s capitalisation and facilitate a Russian buy out: duplication of production would costg $300m-400m and take 5 years.

Immediately following the announcement, Motor Sich shares lost 14% of their value. One week later, Denis Manturov, former Oboronprom CEO, now deputy minister of energy and industry, again proposed that Motor Sich join the future Russian state holding.

Russian Technologies: L’etat, c’est moi

In June 2007, Sergei Chemezov first publicly spoke of fitting ROE a new legal status, “disposing of the full legal rights of an integrated economic subject, plus the rights of state procurement for certain types of military exports. Something between a unitary enterprise and a joint stock company.” He referred surprisingly in this context to the ARKO agency set up in 1999 to restructure banks following the 1998 financial crisis. Specifically for this purpose, a peculiar legal form called “state corporation” was created in 1999 as a non-commercial organisation, and had since fallen into disuse.

Putin, in his state of the nation address in April 2007, mentioned setting up a state corporation for the nuclear sector. However, it was assumed this meant a state-owned joint stock company analogous to the United Aircraft-builders Corporation or United Ship-builders Corporation created 2006.

It turned out that ‘state corporation’ meant precisely ‘state corporation’ as legislated for in the obscure 1999 amendment to the 1996 “Act on Non-commercial Organizations”, and mentioned nowhere in the Civil Code.

‘State Corporation’ (SC) went on to become the hit of the year, with SCs being founded for nanotechnology, Winter Olympics, housing reform, road building, the entire nuclear sector, both military and civilian – and for Russian Technologies (RT), aka Rosoboronexport: with its purpose defined as assisting the development, production and export of high-tech industrial production by supporting Russian organizations on domestic and foreign markets, and attracting investment to different industrial sectors, including the defence sector.

Nowhere in the special law on setting up RT is there any definition of what constitutes high-tech production. In this way, RT has carte blanche to intervene in any sector of the economy.

RT will also perform state functions “in the implementation of the state’s export and import policy and state policy concerning military-technological cooperation with foreign states. The list of functions can be extended by other acts or presidential decisions.”

In fact, the whole ‘state corporation’ concept is riddled with anomalies that create huge accountability and corruption issues:

Bizarrely, a “state corporation”, as laid down in the law, is neither state-owned nor a corporation: it is a non-commercial organization established by the state for a specific purpose – social or “managerial”. It is, however, not owned by the state. Property transferred to the SC belongs forthwith to the SC, and the state has no further claims to it.

An SC is strictly speaking not for profit, but there is a lot of leeway allowed; any profit it makes must be reinvested towards the purpose for which it was created, which however is vaguely defined. Similarly, an SC can act entrepreneurially if this serves the goals for which it was established.

In contrast to federal unitary enterprises such as ROE, SCs have the right to borrow domestically and internationally, to issue bonds and give guarantees. A SC can also establish joint ventures and other partnerships with the private sector.

On February 20, 2008, the Russian Federation Council published a devastating critique of SCs as part of its annual review of federal legislation. Among the points listed were: There is no restriction placed on the purpose and function of SCs; property and funds transferred to the SC become its property and the state has no further rights or claims on them; each corporation is regulated by a separate law, meaning they exist outside any unified legal framework, in a legal grey zone.

Most significantly, according to the Federation Council report: the law contains virtually no control over the activities of SCs. There are no evaluation criteria for SC goal fulfilment; no procedures for medium or long term planning; no sanctions for non-fulfilment of goals.
Astonishingly, considering the ROE story has been all about bring the defence sector back under state control, SCs are explicitly freed from all government oversight and intervention, excepting the power of the president to appoint management and supervisory board.
As stated above, SC assets do even not belong to the state, which makes a mockery of the ROE mantra of ‘bring defence assets back under state control’. In order to transfer ROE to Russian Technologies, it will be de jure privatised. In preparation for this, the state arms export monopolist was removed from the list of strategic state-owned companies in late 2007.
The Federal Council report concludes that SCs create “the perfect chance to transfer state property to the non-state sector with no financial benefit for the state and at the risk of uncontrolled use and alienation of assets.”
Less diplomatically, Kommersant wrote in December 2007, referring to the fact that SCs are formally non-profit organizations, that 2007 had seen “a $20bn donation to charity by the Russian state, the largest ever in human history.”

In fact, the complete lack of government oversight apart from presidential appointment, combined with far-reaching rights of disposal over assets, means that Chemezov’s claim to have restored state control over strategic assets only holds water if he claims ‘l’etat c’est moi’. Given the personalisation of power and property that has taken place under Putin, this claim would not be far from the truth.

There has been no government explanation for such wide use of the SC legal form in the last few months of Putin’s presidency. Chemezov has adduced a couple of reasons: that taking ROE outside the state allows him to pay managers a market-level salary, and that it reduces risk of US sanctions applied to ROE affecting ROE subsidiaries, which will probably now be transferred to direct ownership by RT.
These reasons hardly justify the sweeping and unsupervised disposal of property, and coercive power over whole swathes of the economy, that Chemezov will now enjoy.
However, it could be much worse. Even Chemezov has not seen all his wishes come true. He originally lobbied for ROE to implement the state arms procurement programme, which would have given him control of around $20bn revenues per year, turning RT into a Gazprom of the defence sector, but with even less accountability. This proposal was excluded from the RT bill. However, it is still open for the future – along with the option of transfer to RT of the state’s controlling stakes in the United Aircraft-builders Corporation and the United Ship-building Corporation.
Chemezov has until now worked mostly to nationalise private business, but the establishment of RT indicates he is increasingly set on privatising the business of state. The extent he achieves this under a Medvedev presidency will be a test of whether the incoming president’s public commitment to liberalism holds any water, and whether he can break with his predecessor.

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