Graham Stack in Kyiv for Russia Profile (www.russiaprofile.org)
Opinion polls show Ukraine to be a Russia-leaning country very different from the one described by Western media and Ukrainian foreign policy elites.
“If we were to fantasise, and pretend that {Russian Prime Minister} Vladimir Putin would run for the post of Ukrainian president, then according to opinion poll results he would win right off,” says analyst Alexei Lyashenko of Kyiv’s polling institute Research & Branding (R&B). “His only serious competitor would be {Russian President} Dmitry Medvedev.”
The R&B poll published May 25 show that for all the rhetoric about westwards-bound Ukraine breaking free of Russia’s malign influence and Putin’s imperialism, the reality on the ground is very different.
“In fact, Vladimir Putin’s rating in Ukraine is nothing new, but quite steady,” adds Lapshen. “It was over 50% even during the Orange Revolution.”
Opinion poll results published in May indicate that 58% of Ukrainians have a positive relationship to Vladimir Putin, and 56% to current Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. 21% have a neutral relationship to the Russian PM and ex-president, and 16% negative, with the respective figures 25% and 14% for Medvedev.
R&B’s survey also finds that 35% of Ukrainians would like to see Ukraine united with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, compared to 22% who wished to join the EU, and 10% who wanted a restored Soviet Union.
These results were confirmed by a poll published June 17 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). According to KIIS president Valery Khmelko, 23% of Ukrainians desire full unification with Russia – compared to only 12% of Russians wishing the same.
Doubtlessly due to the 2008-2009 political and economic crisis wracking Ukraine, the number of Ukrainians desiring ‘reunification’ has risen over the last year from 20% to 23%, and the number of Russians in favour has fallen from 19% to 12%.
“These findings also indicate that the ‘prevailing willingness of Russians to append Ukraine to their country forming one state’ is an erroneous idea as the overwhelming majority of Russians do not want such a union,” notes KIIS president Khmelko.
While only a quarter of Ukrainian respondents want full unification with Russia, 68% want an EU-style border-free regime with Russia, with Russia and Ukraine being ‘independent but friendly states’ without a visa regime or custom controls.
Only 7.8% of respondents were in favour of Ukraine’s relations with Russia becoming the same as relations with other countries, i.e. with border controls, customs and visas.
This in fact contrasts even with sentiment in Russia, where respondents are far more cautious about union with Ukraine. Perhaps due to the Ukrainian leadership’s antagonistic policies towards Russia, amplified by the Russian state-controlled media, only 50% of Russian respondents want to see a border-free regime between the countries. 29.1% want relations with Ukraine to be the same as for other countries.
“Ukrainians’ attitude to Russia is much better than Russians’ attitude to Ukraine; over 90% of people in Ukraine have a positive attitude to Russia – and it has become even better over the past year,” points out Khmelko.
According to Lyashenko, the Ukrainian affection for Putin and Medvedev is most concentrated in East Ukraine, where 75% are positive. However, even in the West Ukraine districts where Russian is hardly spoken, around 25% of respondents described their relationship to the Russian leaders as positive.
Surprisingly, in contrast to geography, age group does not influence the attitude towards Russia and its leaders, according to the polls.
“Ukrainians preference for Russian state-controlled television, and the desire for strong leadership in crisis times, also play a role,” says Lyashenko.
“But the main cause that Medvedev and Putin score so high,” he adds, “ is the endless conflicts and score-settling in Ukrainian politics that make them look good.”
None of the current Ukrainian leaders can compete with Putin and Medvedev in terms of popularity. Pro-Russian head of opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych currently enjoys a 25% rating, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko 14%, and new face Arsenyi Yatsenyuk 13%.
Only 2% of Ukrainians would vote for President Yushchenko, the most anti-Russian top Ukrainian official, in upcoming elections January 2010.
Neither do Ukrainians have much sympathy for Georgian President Mikheil Sakhashvili, whom Yushchenko vocally supported during the country’s conflict with Russia over South Ossetia August 2008. According to Lyashenko, 45% have a negative opinion of Saakashvili, and only 11% a positive opinion.
According to an opinion poll published in Polish daily Rzeczpospolita in March 2009, 56% of Polish respondents fear Vladimir Putin, and 58% believe that Russia is conducting a foreign policy that endangers Poland’s national security. This despite the fact that Poland has no border with Russia, excluding Kaliningrad, and is a member of both NATO and the EU.
To the author of the article: It seems to me that your opinions about Putin’s popularity in Ukraine are misleading… It is one thing to say that over 50% of Ukrainian population favour Putin as a Russian leader, yet it is totally different to state that the same % would vote him for Putin as the leader for Ukraine.
Many people, though they like Putin, do not think that necessarily means Ukraine needs to reunite with Russia, so we can have as good of a life as russians have. In fact, most people understand that Russian standards of life are not much higher then the ones in Ukraine.
Therefore, one should not mistreat high Putin rating in Ukraine with Ukrainians being in favour of Russia’s strategic course on our own soil.
Especially, after recent accusations towards Ukraine from President Medvedev, the poll results you were describing will be considerably different, and not in Russia’s favour.
sure, the direct comparison of Putin’s popularity in Ukraine with Yushchenko’s is formally not quite correct, since different questions were being asked by the pollsters. I said that the idea of Putin standing as candidate in Ukraine was ‘just fantasy’. But still, the results contradict a lot of preconceived notions, so its worth while considering them.
“Especially, after recent accusations towards Ukraine from President Medvedev, the poll results you were describing will be considerably different, and not in Russia’s favour.”
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In hind sight, Medvedev’s remarks 9his open letter to Yushchenko) didn’t seem to change much.
It certainly didn’t help Yushchenko.
This in fact contrasts even with sentiment in Russia, where respondents are far more cautious about union with Ukraine. Perhaps due to the Ukrainian leadership’s antagonistic policies towards Russia, amplified by the Russian state-controlled media, only 50% of Russian respondents want to see a border-free regime between the countries. 29.1% want relations with Ukraine to be the same as for other countries.”
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Russians do have other media options to follow.
In addition, there’s reasonably objective enough reasons for Russians to be suspect of the overall situation in Ukraine. This feeling is shared by a number of non-Russians as well.
On the influence of media and a point touched on in the article (on how the perception of Ukraine isn’t quite what some otherwise assume), consider the kind of Ukrainian views that seem to get the nod at major Western venues.