West should beware “junta” coalition, says Yatsenyuk

Graham Stack in Kiev

With a grand coalition in Ukraine’s parliament looking set to cancel upcoming direct presidential elections and change the constitution, Arsenyi Yatsenyuk, dubbed Ukraine’s Obama, and one of the favourites to win the elections, has warned the West of a Russian-backed “junta” that could turn Ukraine into “a banana republic.”

“I know the West is exhausted of the stand-off in Ukraine,” 35 year old Arsenyi Yatsenyuk, parliamentary deputy and leader of Ukraine’s “Front for Change”, told this correspondent in perfect English, ”but this is very dangerous. Because if the coalition’s plans go ahead, Ukraine will return to the sphere of influence of a certain big country,” he added, leaving no doubt he had Russia in mind. “It will also turn Ukraine into a banana republic,” he added.

Yatsenyuk called the nascent coalition’s plans to cancel presidential elections and shift power to the parliament “an anti-constitutional conspiracy,” and promised to head a campaign to stop what he referred to as a “junta”.

Asked if there would be a second Orange revolution, Yatsenyuk said, “you will see.”

The two parties which are negotiating the coalition, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovch’s Party of Regions, together command 70% of the parliament, meaning the coalition will monopolise power in the country if comes to fruition, as it is expected to within this week.

Currently, presidential elections are scheduled for January 2010. The nascent coalition and its plans to abolish presidential elections are expected to be formally announced coming Tuesday.

Analysts agree that the move would condemn Ukraine to follow Russia and Belarus along the path to authoritarianism, by sidelining opposition and restricting political participation.

Until Yatsenyuk threw his hat into the ring, the presidential elections were seen as a two horse race between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko. Incumbent president Viktor Yushchenko, although also intending to run, has poll ratings of 2%, making him a marginal candidate.

Yatsenyuk’s rating has already reached 14% and is rising monthly. PM Tymoshenko is on 15% and opposition leader Yanukovych on 25%.

Yatsenyuk’s campaign team have no doubt that his rapid rise has prompted the move to cancel elections, with both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych now uncertain of their chances in the winner-takes-all presidential race. Yatsenyuk declared his candidacy on May 22 on turning thirty five, the minimal age for a presidential candidacy.

Former PM Yanukovych and current PM Tymoshenko were on opposing sides during the globally-acclaimed 2004 Orange revolution. It was largely Tymoshenko’s firebrand rhetoric and actions that stymied Yanukovych’s attempt to rig the elections in his favour. Now they appear to be divvying up power between them to keep Yatsenyuk out. Reports indicate Yanukovych will have himself elected president by parliament, in return for Tymoshenko continuing as prime minister.

Yanukovch openly favours a pro-Russian Ukraine. Tymoshenko, formerly vehemently pro-Western, has shifted radically to a pro-Russian position since the Russian-Georgian conflict of August 2008, prompting Ukraine’s secret service to investigate her for betraying the national interest.

Yatsenyuk’s soaring popularity in Ukraine has led to him being dubbed the Ukrainian Obama. Like Obama, he is a legal scholar by profession, with a background in civil activism. Despite his youth he has held high office in Ukraine as Minister of Economy, Foreign Minister and Parliamentary speaker. He has however avoided being mired in political sleaze and backstabbing that has dogged the country.

His campaign is also modeled on Obama’s success in 2008, with its slogan of ‘change’, and reliance on grassroots activism and also financial support from the pockets of ordinary people donating via the Internet.

His campaign team, however, playfully disclaim any such parallel, saying there are significant differences between the two young politicians. “Obama uses a blackberry, while Yatsenyuk prefers an i-phone’ a source close to Yatsenyuk joked.

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